If you see this, something is wrong

LaTex2Web logo

LaTeX2Web, a web authoring and publishing system

LaTex2Web logo

LaTeX2Web, a web authoring and publishing system

Table of contents

Digest for "Fixed-Point Estimation of the Drift Parameter in Stochastic Differential Equations Driven by Rough Multiplicative Fractional Noise"

Abstract

We investigate the problem of estimating the drift parameter from \( N\) independent copies of the solution of a stochastic differential equation driven by a multiplicative fractional Brownian noise with Hurst parameter \( H\in (1/3,1)\) . Building on a least-squares-type object involving the Skorokhod integral, a key challenge consists in approximating this unobservable quantity with a computable fixed-point estimator, which requires addressing the correction induced by replacing the Skorokhod integral with its pathwise counterpart. To this end, a crucial technical contribution of this work is the reformulation of the Malliavin derivative of the process in a way that does not depend explicitly on the driving noise, enabling control of the approximation error in the multiplicative setting. For the case \( H\in (1/3,1/2]\) , we further exploit results on two-dimensional Young integrals to manage the more intricate correction term that appears. As a result, we establish the well-posedness of a fixed-point estimator for any \( H\in (1/3,1)\) , together with both an asymptotic confidence interval and a non-asymptotic risk bound. Finally, a numerical study illustrates the good practical performance of the proposed estimator.

Assumption 1

The function \( \sigma\) is bounded and \( \inf_{\mathbb R}|\sigma| > 0\) .

Proposition 1

Under Assumption 1, for every \( s,t\in [0,T]\) ,

\[ \mathbf D_sX_t = \sigma(X_t)\exp\left( \theta_0\int_{s}^{t}\left(b'(X_u) - \frac{\sigma'(X_u)b(X_u)}{\sigma(X_u)}\right)du\right)\mathbf 1_{[0,t)}(s). \]

Proposition 2

Consider

\[ \Delta_T =\{(s,t)\in [0,T]^2 : s < t\} ~\textrm{and}~ \widetilde\Delta_T =\{(s,t,u,v)\in [0,T]^4 : s < u < t < v\}. \]

Assume that \( H\in (1/3,1/2]\) , and let \( x : [0,T]^2\rightarrow\mathbb R\) be a function such that

\[ \begin{equation} |x(s,t)|\leqslant\mathfrak c_x|t - s|^{\alpha} \textrm{ \( ;\) }\forall (s,t)\in\Delta_T, \end{equation} \]

(4)

and

\[ \begin{equation} |x(s,t) - x(u,v)|\leqslant\mathfrak c_x(|s - u|^{\alpha} + |t - v|^{\alpha}) \textrm{ \( ;\) }\forall (s,t,u,v)\in\widetilde\Delta_T, \end{equation} \]

(5)

where \( \alpha\in (1 - 2H,H)\) and \( \mathfrak c_x\) is a positive constant. Then, the 2D Young integral of \( x\) with respect to the covariance function \( R\) of the fBm is well-defined, and

\[ \int_{0 < s < t < T}x(s,t)dR(s,t) = \alpha_H\int_{0}^{T}\int_{0}^{t}x(s,t)|t - s|^{2H - 2}dsdt. \]

Proposition 3

Assume that \( H\in (1/3,1/2]\) . Under Assumption 1, if \( b\) is bounded, then

\[ \begin{eqnarray} \int_{0}^{T}\pi(X_s)\delta B_s & = & \int_{0}^{T}\pi(X_s)dB_s - H\int_{0}^{T}\varphi(X_s)s^{2H - 1}ds \end{eqnarray} \]

(6)

\[ \begin{eqnarray} & & -\alpha_H\int_{0}^{T}\int_{0}^{t} \varphi(X_t)\left(\exp\left(\theta_0\int_{s}^{t}\psi(X_u)du\right) - 1\right)|t - s|^{2H - 2}dsdt \\\end{eqnarray} \]

and

\[ \begin{eqnarray} \int_{0}^{T}b(X_s)\delta X_s & = & \int_{0}^{T}b(X_s)dX_s - H\int_{0}^{T}\varphi(X_s)s^{2H - 1}ds \end{eqnarray} \]

(7)

\[ \begin{eqnarray} & & -\alpha_H\int_{0}^{T}\int_{0}^{t} \varphi(X_t)\left(\exp\left(\theta_0\int_{s}^{t}\psi(X_u)du\right) - 1\right)|t - s|^{2H - 2}dsdt. \\\end{eqnarray} \]

Remark 1

Let us add a few remarks on Proposition 3.

  1. Since \( \sigma\) , \( 1/\sigma\) , and the derivatives of \( b\) and \( \sigma\) are already assumed to be bounded, if \( b\) is itself bounded, then so are \( \varphi\) and \( \psi\) . This additional boundedness condition on \( b\) , which is not needed when \( H \in (1/2,1)\) , is the price to pay in order to apply Theorem 3.1 of Song and Tindel as well as Proposition 2 in the proof of Proposition 3 (see Section 5).
  2. It is worth noting that, after application of Proposition 2, the relationships between Skorokhod and pathwise integrals in the two cases \( H > 1/2\) and \( H\in (1/3,1/2]\) , summarized in Equations (3) and (7) respectively, appear quite similar. However, there is a crucial difference: in Equation (7), the right-hand side cannot be simplified in such a way that the second integral cancels the \( -1\) appearing in the third term, as happens in Equation (3). This is because the map

    \[ (s,t)\in [0,T]^2\longmapsto \varphi(X_t)\exp\left(\theta_0\int_{s}^{t}\psi(X_u)du\right)\mathbf 1_{[0,t)}(s) \]

    does not satisfy the assumptions of Proposition 2.

Proposition 4

Assume that \( b'\) , \( \varphi\) and \( \psi\) are nonpositive. Under Assumption 1, if

\[ \begin{equation} T^{2H}\frac{M_N}{D_N}\leqslant \frac{\mathfrak c}{\overline\alpha_H \|\varphi\|_{\infty}\|\psi\|_{\infty}}, \end{equation} \]

(10)

where \( \mathfrak c\) is a deterministic constant arbitrarily chosen in \( (0,1)\) ,

\[ M_N = e^{\|\psi\|_{\infty}|I_N|T} ~\textrm{and}~ \overline\alpha_H =\frac{|\alpha_H|}{2H(2H + 1)}, \]

then \( \Theta_N\) is a contraction from \( \mathbb R_+\) into itself. Therefore, \( R_N\) exists and is unique.

Remark 2

Note that, in particular, the conditions of Proposition 4 on \( (\varphi,\psi)\) imply that it is bounded. Indeed,

\[ \varphi =\sigma^2\left(b' +\frac{\sigma'}{\sigma}b\right) ~\textrm{and}~ \psi = b' -\frac{\sigma'}{\sigma}b, \]

leading to

\[ \left\{ \begin{array}{rcl} b' & \leqslant & 0\\ \varphi & \leqslant & 0\\ \psi & \leqslant & 0 \end{array}\right. \Longleftrightarrow \left\{ \begin{array}{rcl} b' & \leqslant & 0\\ -b' -\sigma'b/\sigma & \geqslant & 0\\ b' -\sigma'b/\sigma & \leqslant & 0 \end{array}\right. \Longleftrightarrow \left\{ \begin{array}{rcl} b' & \leqslant & 0\\ b' & \leqslant & \sigma'b/\sigma\leqslant -b' \end{array}\right. ~ ({\rm A}) \]

Since \( b'\) and \( \sigma\) are bounded, the ratio \( \sigma'b/\sigma\) is also bounded, and therefore so are \( (\varphi,\psi)\) .

Example 1

Let us provide examples of drift and volatility functions satisfying the condition \( {\rm (A)}\) :

  1. If \( \sigma\) is constant, then \( (\varphi,\psi) = (\sigma^2b',b')\) satisfies \( {\rm (A)}\) if and only if \( b'\leqslant 0\) (as in [60], Proposition 7).
  2. Assume that \( b(x) = -x\) , which is quite common. Then,

    \[ ({\rm A})\Longleftrightarrow -1\leqslant\frac{\sigma'(x)}{\sigma(x)}x\leqslant 1. \]

    For instance,

    • If \( \sigma(x) =\pi +\arctan(x)\) , then \( \sigma'(x) = (1 + x^2)^{-1}\) , leading to

      \[ \frac{\sigma'(x)}{\sigma(x)}x = \frac{x}{(1 + x^2)(\pi +\arctan(x))}\in [-1,1]. \]
    • If \( \sigma(x) = 1 + e^{-x^2}\) , then \( \sigma'(x) = -2xe^{-x^2}\) , leading to

      \[ \frac{\sigma'(x)}{\sigma(x)}x =\frac{-2x^2e^{-x^2}}{1 + e^{-x^2}}\in [-1,1]. \]

Proposition 5

Assume that \( b'\) , \( \varphi\) and \( \psi\) are nonpositive, \( \theta_0 > 0\) and that

\[ \begin{equation} \frac{2T^{2H}}{\|b\|_{f}^{2}}\exp\left(\frac{2\|\psi\|_{\infty}}{\|b\|_{f}^{2}} |\mathbb E({\tt b}(X_T)) - {\tt b}(x_0)|\right) <\frac{\mathfrak c}{\overline\alpha_H \|\varphi\|_{\infty}\|\psi\|_{\infty}}. \end{equation} \]

(12)

Under Assumption 1, there exists a constant \( \mathfrak c_{5} > 0\) , not depending on \( N\) , such that

\[ \mathbb P(\Delta_{N}^{c}) \leqslant \frac{\mathfrak c_{5}}{N}. \]

Proposition 6

Assume that \( b'\) , \( \varphi\) and \( \psi\) are nonpositive, and that \( \theta_0 > 0\) . Under Assumption 1, if \( T\) satisfies the condition (12) with \( \mathfrak c = 1/2\) , then

\[ \lim_{N\rightarrow\infty} \mathbb P\left(\theta_0\in\left[ \overline\theta_{N}^{\mathfrak c} - \frac{2}{\sqrt ND_N}Y_{N}^{\frac{1}{2}}u_{1 -\frac{\alpha}{4}}\textrm{ \( ;\) } \overline\theta_{N}^{\mathfrak c} + \frac{2}{\sqrt ND_N}Y_{N}^{\frac{1}{2}}u_{1 -\frac{\alpha}{4}}\right]\right)\geqslant 1 -\alpha \]

for every \( \alpha\in (0,1)\) , where \( u_{\cdot} =\phi^{-1}(\cdot)\) , \( \phi\) is the standard normal distribution function, and

\[ \begin{eqnarray*} Y_N & := & \frac{1}{NT^2} \sum_{i = 1}^{N}\left( \alpha_H\int_{0}^{T}\int_{0}^{T} |\pi(X_{s}^{i})|\cdot |\pi(X_{t}^{i})|\cdot |t - s|^{2H - 2}dsdt\right.\\ & & \left. +\alpha_{H}^{2}\int_{[0,T]^2}\int_{0}^{v}\int_{0}^{u} |u -\overline u|^{2H - 2}|v -\overline v|^{2H - 2} \varphi(X_{v}^{i})\varphi(X_{u}^{i})d\overline ud\overline vdudv\right). \end{eqnarray*} \]

Proposition 7

Assume that \( b'\) , \( \varphi\) and \( \psi\) are nonpositive, and that \( \theta_0 > 0\) . Under Assumption 1, if \( T\) satisfies the condition (12), then there exists a constant \( \mathfrak c_{7} > 0\) , not depending on \( N\) , such that

\[ \mathbb E(|\overline\theta_{N}^{\mathfrak c,\mathfrak d} -\theta_0|^2)\leqslant \frac{\mathfrak c_{7}}{N}. \]

Proposition 8

Assume that \( b\) is bounded, and that \( b'\) , \( \varphi\) and \( \psi\) are nonpositive. Under Assumption 1, if \( M_N/D_N\) satisfies the condition (10), then \( \widetilde\Theta_N\) is a contraction from \( \mathbb R_+\) into itself. Therefore, \( R_N\) exists and is unique.

Proposition 9

Assume that \( b\) is bounded, \( b'\) , \( \varphi\) and \( \psi\) are nonpositive, and that \( \theta_0\leqslant\theta_{\max}\) with a known \( \theta_{\max} > 0\) . Under Assumption 1, if \( T\) satisfies the condition (12) with \( \mathfrak c = 1/2\) , then

\[ \lim_{N\rightarrow\infty} \mathbb P\left(\theta_0\in\left[ \overline\theta_{N}^{\mathfrak c} - \frac{2}{\sqrt ND_N}\mathfrak Y_{N}^{\frac{1}{2}}u_{1 -\frac{\alpha}{4}}\textrm{ \( ;\) } \overline\theta_{N}^{\mathfrak c} + \frac{2}{\sqrt ND_N}\mathfrak Y_{N}^{\frac{1}{2}}u_{1 -\frac{\alpha}{4}}\right]\right)\geqslant 1 -\alpha \textrm{ \( ;\) }\forall\alpha\in (0,1), \]

where

\[ \mathfrak Y_N = \frac{1}{NT^2}\sum_{i = 1}^{N}\left( \left|\int_{0}^{T}b(X_{s}^{i})dX_{s}^{i}\right| + \theta_{\max}\int_{0}^{T}b(X_{s}^{i})^2ds + \int_{0}^{T}\varphi(X_{t}^{i})\Lambda_{t}^{i}(\theta_{\max})dt \right)^2. \]

Remark 3

Comparing the confidence interval in Proposition 6 with that of Proposition 9, one can notice a difference in the random variables appearing in the widths of the intervals: \( Y_N\) is now replaced by \( \mathfrak Y_N\) . This discrepancy arises because, in the case \( H > 1/2\) , when analyzing the variance of the Skorokhod integral, we could invoke Theorem 3.11.1 in [67], which allows us to propose a Lebesgue integral bounded by \( Y_N\) and converging in probability to the variance of the Skorokhod integral.

For \( H\in (1/3,1/2]\) , this theorem is no longer applicable. Instead, we handle the variance of the Skorokhod integral by directly using the relationship between the Skorokhod and pathwise integrals, as established through our probabilistic tools in Equality (7).

Proposition 10

Assume that \( b\) is bounded, and that \( b'\) , \( \varphi\) and \( \psi\) are nonpositive. Under Assumption 1, if \( T\) satisfies the condition (12), then there exists a constant \( \mathfrak c_{10} > 0\) , not depending on \( N\) , such that

\[ \mathbb E(|\overline\theta_{N}^{\mathfrak c,\mathfrak d} -\theta_0|^2)\leqslant \frac{\mathfrak c_{10}}{N}. \]

Lemma 1

For every \( s,t\in [0,T]\) , consider

\[ \overline L(s,t) = \varphi(X_t)\exp\left(\theta_0\int_{s}^{t}\psi(X_u)du\right)\mathbf 1_{[0,t)}(s) ~\textrm{and}~ L(s,t) = \overline L(s,t) -\varphi(X_t)\mathbf 1_{[0,t)}(s). \]

Under the assumptions of Proposition 3,

  1. There exists a deterministic constant \( \mathfrak c_{1} > 0\) such that

    \[ |L(s,t)|\leqslant \mathfrak c_{1}|t - s| \textrm{ \( ;\) }\forall (s,t)\in\Delta_T, \]

    and for every \( \alpha\in (0,H)\) ,

    \[ |L(s,t) - L(u,v)|\leqslant \mathfrak c_{1}(1\vee\|X\|_{\alpha,T})(|t - v|^{\alpha} + |s - u|) \textrm{ \( ;\) }\forall (s,t),(u,v)\in\Delta_T, \]

    where \( \|X\|_{\alpha,T}\) is the \( \alpha\) -H
    specialChar{34}older norm of \( X\) over \( [0,T]\) .

  2. For every \( p > 1/H\) , the random variables \( \|\overline L(0,\cdot)\|_{p\textrm{-var},T}\) and \( \|\overline L\|_{p\textrm{-var},[0,T]^2}\) belong to \( \mathbb L^2(\Omega)\) .

References

[1] Marie, N. (2025). On a Computable Skorokhod's Integral Based Estimator of the Drift Parameter in Fractional SDE. Scandinavian Journal of Statistics 52(1), 1-37.

[2] Biagini, F., Hu, Y., Oksendal, B. & Zhang, T. (2008). Stochastic Calculus for Fractional Brownian Motion and Applications. Springer, London.